World Cup Top Scorer odds look wide open on first inspection, but by looking at past World Cup Golden Boot odds and trends we can narrow down the field.
Below are all the world cup golden boot winners, along with their top scorer odds where we have been able to find them.
The World Cup top scorer odds listed were those available at the start of the tournament.
|2010||South Africa||Spain||Muller/Villa/Forlan/Sneijder||8/1 - 150/1||Ger/Spa/Uru/Hol|
|1994||USA||Brazil||Hristo Stoichkov/Oleg Salenko||33/1 / 100/1||Bulgaria/Russia|
|1990||Italy||West Germany||Salvatore Schillachi||-||Italy|
|1974||West Germany||West Germany||Gregorz Lato||-||Poland|
|1970||Mexico||Brazil||Gerd Muller||-||West Germany|
|1962||Chile||Brazil||Six Way Tie||-||Six Way Tie|
|1954||Switzerland||West Germany||Sandor Korcses||-||Hungary|
|1938||France||Italy||Leonidas de Silva||-||Brazil|
What to look out for when placing your top scorer bets.
The winner of the World Cup Top Scorer is likely to play more than just the group games. More games mean more opportunities to score so backing a player that plays for a side that should reach the semi finals at least is a good idea. So check out teams latest world cup odds before choosing your striker for the golden boot bet.
In seven of the sixteen World Cups where there has been a clear Golden Boot winner, the Golden Boot winner's nation has played in the final.
The team tactics are also important to consider. A defensive side is not likely to score too many goals which is going to make it hard for that side to provide the Top Scorer, however good their main striker is.
Brazil are often the most attack minded team which is why they score plenty of goals and have provided the World Cup Golden Boot a record three times.
Always have a look at the group fixtures. There are often some very weak teams in the World Cup Group Stage and a game against the tournament whipping boys is an opportunity for a potential World Cup Golden Boot to grab two or three goals.
That could be half the goals they will need to become Golden Boot, from just one game. If you are after a really big payout, some bookies offer a double where you have to name the world cup winner and the top goalscorer. This maybe easier than it sounds as often the golden boot winner plays for the winning world cup team. Check out current world cup odds to help you pick your team and striker.
The following countries are most likely to score plenty of goals due to playing against the weaker World Cup teams in their group or by making it to the semi finals at least.
Although Germany and Spain are both fancied to have good World Cups, they both have much tougher groups than Brazil and Argentina so could find themselves scoring much fewer goals as a teams, and therefore the individual players are going to score less. Whilst both Spain and Germany are capable of scoring plenty of goals in their matches because of their array of attacking talent in midfield both teams happen to lack a world class striker which means they could end up spreading their goals around the team. Meanwhile Brazil and Argentina should not only do well at the World Cup and score plenty in their group matches but they also have two of the best attackers in the world. Argentina have Lionel Messi and Brazil have Neymar but are those the players to back.
Brazil have always been one of the most attacking teams at the World Cup and have produced the World Cup Golden Boot more than any other nation. They are likely to perform extremely well at the 2014 World Cup as they will be on home soil and since they are likely to play more games than most other teams, they should get more chances to score than most other teams. They also have group matches against Cameroon, Croatia and Mexico so expect up to 8 goals from those matches with around half of them being scored by their eventual top scorer.
Neymar performed brilliantly at the 2013 Confederations Cup in Brazil (a tournament Brazil won) and he looks a leading contender. However, despite scoring 4 goals in that tournament, he was actually outscored by team mate Fred who was the top scorer at the Confederations Cup. Neymar certainly has a great chance of being the World Cup top scorer but Fred looks to have at least the same chance yet Fred is almost three times bigger in the betting so he rates the best value for Brazil.
Argentina have arguably the easiest World Cup draw of all. First of all they have group games against Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran and Nigeria and then, presuming they win the group, they'll probably face Switzerland or Ecuador in the next round. By the time Argentina play their quarter final match the top scorer at the World Cup should be playing for Argentina unless they really share the goals around.
Argentina are likely to play a very attacking line up with Sergio Aguero, Lionel Messi and Gonzalo Higuain all set to start. Despite how well he has played for Man City this season, Sergio Aguero looks the least likely of that trio to be the World Cup top scorer. He scored just half of the goals Lionel Messi got in qualifying and he had the worst goals per minute ratio of the three forwards. Lionel Messi may have scored more than Gonzalo Higuain in qualifying and he might be a third of the price but he only outscored Higuain by one goal and it was Higuain who actually came out on top in terms of goals per minute (Messi scored every 114.3 minutes whilst Higuain scored every 95.4 minutes). Higuain's central striking role obviously works in his favour and he's been in as good a form as ever this season for new club Napoli. The cherry on the cake here is that Higuain scored 4 goals at the last World Cup, just 1 less than the Golden Boot, whilst Messi failed to score any. With Argentina expected to perform better here than four years ago Higuain looks an outstanding bet.