The World Cup will often see some of the biggest sides in the tournament being eliminated at the earliest possible stage and some of the tournament minnows well outperforming expectations.
This makes World Cup spread betting a great way to make profit during the tournament. Spread betting rewards you for your bets the more you are right, but also punishes you the more you are wrong. If a bet pans out exactly as the spread betting firm predicts it you are likely to make a small loss or break even.
Watch the video for some ideas, then check out our tips below.
Tournament goals at the world cup have been on the decrease since 1998. European championships have seen a similar trend and as the gulf of quality between countries has narrowed, the number of goals scored has decreased.
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There has been a decline in red cards recently as referees seem much more keen on keeping players on the pitch. A high number of cards in 2006 seems to have given this market a far too high a quote.
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The key to World Cup spread betting is to avoid the obvious. Everyone thinks Brazil are going to do well and by backing Brazil in the tournament index you might make a bit of profit if they win the tournament and a tiny profit if they are runners up but any worse than that and you are going to make a loss, potentially a big one. If something goes spectacularly wrong and they go out at the group stage you have big problems.
Finding a team with a big reputation that is probably not as strong as many people think is often a good opportunity to sell. Likewise a team that has ideal conditions to do well but is still not fancied by the majority is a good opportunity to buy.
At the forthcoming World Cup there is likely to be one set of teams that are well worth taking on and one set of teams that are well worth backing to do well.
European teams dont tend to do as well when playing outside of Europe as they do when playing in Europe. In the last six World Cups held in Europe, ten of the twelve finalists have been European and two have been South American. All the winners of World Cups held in Europe have been European.
In World Cups held outside of Europe there has been just one European winner, and that was on the one occasion when the World Cup was held in Africa. In the nine World Cups held outside of Europe, just eight European sides have made the final and all but one of those finished runner up. That means ten of the sides in the final were not European.
It is not just coincidence that European sides struggle outside of Europe. In years gone by teams did well in their own continent because most players played club football inside their own continent. Now most of the best Asian, African and South American players have come to Europe to play in the best leagues. This means countries with those players now perform better in Europe than they previously did. In contrast, very few European players are plying their trade outside of Europe. When faced with extreme temperatures or higher altitudes on other continents they often struggle.
Sides that may well be worth taking on include France, who performed badly in Euro 2008 and are clearly a nation that is in transition from an old team to a new younger team.
Italy seem to be extremely rigid and offer little creativity and the players coming through are nowhere near the quality of the players who are getting on a bit or have retired in recent years. They may struggle to go beyond the group stage for the second consecutive World Cup.
Invariably sides that are playing in their own continent are at an advantage. They are used to the conditions and able to perform to the best of their abilities. Their best is not always good enough but there are several South American teams that should do well.
In nineteen World Cups only four times has the tournament been won by a team playing outside of its own continent, Brazil in Sweden 58 and Brazil, USA 94 and Spain in South Africa 2010. The three from the last thirty years were all in weaker footballing continents and despite Spain bucking the trend in 2010, there remains a doubt as to whether a European team can be a success in South America. This shows the advantage of playing in your own continent.
Brazil and Argentina will of course be well fancied, but we also saw a very good performance from Uruguay in 2010 and all of the South American teams at the 2014 World Cup will command plenty of respect.
Not all European sides should be written off and opposed blindly. Spain are the only European side to win a World Cup outside of Europe and they have been the dominant force in international football for several years now. If a European team can win a World Cup in South America then Spain could be the team to do it.