
This World Cup group is balanced on a knife edge with all four teams going into their second game on one point. Italy don't look as good as they have been in recent years and in recent tournaments but should be up to beating New Zealand, who gained plenty of credit for their performance against Slovakia and proved they are not as bad as many people were expecting.
Match betting is a massively popular market and the first market most punters choose to look at as your decision in this market is likely to impact all other bets you place on the game.
The gulf in class couldn't be any bigger at a World Cup and it is simply a case of how many for Italy. Obviously Italy are very short to win the game in 90 minutes but to be fair it will be a better investment than you would get at a bank for the same period of time so might be a better bet than many people think.
The Asian Handicap is an interesting bet as it usually gives one team a lead that should be enough to cancel out any superiority the favourites for the game have.
This would not ordinarily stand out as a good bet, after all New Zealand looked an okay side against Slovakia, but the odds on this coming in seem very generous considering the difference in class between the two sides and Italy should win this by a few goals so back Italy -1.5 in the asian handicap.
Take a look at recent results for the two sides to help decide what the best bets are in the over/under betting and also the correct score market.
| Date | Team | Scores | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/09 | Montenegro | 0 - 2 (0:1) | Italy |
| 01/04/09 | Italy | 1 - 1 (1:0) | Republic Of Ireland |
| 05/09/09 | Georgia | 0 - 2 (0:0) | Italy |
| 09/09/09 | Italy | 2 - 0 (2:0) | Bulgaria |
| 10/10/09 | Republic Of Ireland | 2 - 2 (1:1) | Italy |
| 14/10/09 | Italy | 3 - 2 (0:1) | Cyprus |
| Date | Team | Scores | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/07 | New Zealand | 4 - 1 (3:0) | Vanuatu |
| 06/09/08 | New Caledonia | 1 - 3 (0:1) | New Zealand |
| 10/09/08 | New Zealand | 3 - 0 (0:0) | New Caledonia |
| 19/11/08 | Northern Ireland | 0 - 2 (0:0) | Fiji |
| 10/10/09 | Bahrain | (0:0) | New Zealand |
| 14/10/09 | New Zealand | 1 - 0 (1:0) | Bahrain |
Italy don't score too many goals, they were amongst the lowest scorers from the successful sides at qualifying, but they are sure to make an exception here against a small side like New Zealand. It seems most likely they will win by three or four goals so the first bet to have is over 2.5 goals. In the correct score market it looks between 3-0 and 4-0, it is hard to see Italy scoring more goals than that and 3-0 just gets the nod.
Some of the most fun markets to bet on are the player markets, such as first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer. They are usually relatively big odds and can give plenty of reward if you pick correctly.
Italy will be expecting to pick from many of their aging stars such as the nation's most capped played Fabio Cannavaro, Gennaro Guttuso and Antonio Di Natale. They will need their younger players such as Giorgio Chellini, Domenico Criscito and Riccardo Montolivo all to be fit to compliment those older players and give the national side some legs.
This is the sort of game that strikers look at as potential deciders for the World Cup Golden Boot. A hat trick in this match would put someone around half way towards being the top scorer in the World Cup and you certainly want to be backing someone to get a hat trick. Italy's top scorer in qualifying was Alberto Gilardino, with only four goals, and he could get close to that toal in just one game here. Gilardino should be backed to score first and to score a hat trick and there is one more bet worth having. Antonio Di Natale has an eye for goal and he should be backed to score against New Zealand at anytime.
The latest tips that include the half time result in them, some of the most popular bets here are half time result and half time/full time.
There could be a bit of value in going for a draw at half time here. It is not the most likely result, but that is reflected in the odds. New Zealand would absolutely love a draw here and we have alerady seen many team park the bus in front of the goal, with varying degrees of success. New Zealand are capable of holding out to half time before losing the game in the second half and that looks a nice price.
It is not often Italy can be tipped to have over 2.5 goals in their matches but to be fair their last two qualifers both had over 2.5 goals and they are capable of breaking the 2.5 goal barrier simply with their goals against New Zealand, and that is enough to make this the bet of the game.